Erdogan’s visit to the United States

Among the numerous items on his agenda, Erdogan must bring two in particular to the United States:

1. The Cyprus problem

2. The Iraq problem

Erdogan should attempt to engage President Bush on these issues.

***

1) Erdogan should give a program — specifying dates — to Bush detailing how he will tackle the "Cyprus problem." He should make it very clear that the Cyprus problem will be solved within the context of the Annan plan.

But he should also give Bush a written statement clearly identifying to which points of the Annan plan Turkey and Turkish Cyprus are requesting changes or clarifications and why. The prime minister should also announce the date of a referendum on the Annan plan in northern Cyprus.

***

2) Meanwhile, Erdogan should voice his concerns about the U.S. performance in Iraq, which has been a complete failure so far.

It is very clear that the hypothetical government of Iraq that will take over by June 30 is still up in the air. It is obvious that none of the players in Iraq is satisfied nor have they even clarified how they will contribute to the government.

It is also obvious that law and order have not been able to be established in Iraq, even after the arrest of Saddam. Terror, more than the U.S. military, still grips the people, and basic services are still lacking in Baghdad.

***

The United States believes that some of the Kurdish clans in northern Iraq are its best allies in the area, and as a result the most privileged concessions to date have been received by them. But the Kurds in the area interpret these concessions as a backing for "a federal Iraq" based on ethnicity and also that they alone can control oil-rich Kirkuk.

***

The possibility of such a "federal Iraq" openly threatens Turkey, Iran and Syria. An ethnic northern Iraq is not also acceptable to the Shiite majority in Iraq or to most of the Sunnis.

***

It is Turkey that can best explain the reasons for the unrest in the area that shared by most of the countries and the various parties. It is still Turkey that can best coordinate discussions in the area and explain the stance of various countries vis-a-vis the United States and vice versa. It is also Turkey that can coordinate a possible rapprochement between Israel and the various Arab states, starting with Syria.

***

Above all, Erdogan should explain to the president of the United States that the conservative majority in Turkey cannot digest concessions in Cyprus and northern Iraq at the same time.