The real fight will be on Cyprus and northern Iraq

Cyprus issue will be settled this year. For the first alternative, we will sit at the table with Greeks and the EU and a compromise will be reached on a formula. After this, Turkey’s foreign relations will change. We will get rid of being labeled as the invasion force in the international arena. Moreover, the Aegean Sea will turn into a "sea of peace." Our relations with Greece will be on the basis of political and economic cooperation rather than a series of rows and conflicts. In addition, the most important obstacle before our relations with the EU and the U.S will be eliminated. Therefore this will totally be to our advantage.

In the second alternative, Turkey will surrender to the arguments of those opposing a settlement on Cyprus. The Denktas approach will dominate policies on Cyprus. Therefore the problem will remain unsettled and Turkey will be accused of being an invasion force. Its relations with the EU will be destroyed. Therefore, Cyprus will totally be to our disadvantage.

Fears over northern Iraq will plague us
Another important issue which will be on the agenda in 2004 will be the new statute the Kurds are trying to form in northern Iraq. The debates which started after they presented the constitutional draft will become more heated this year. Huge rows over the issue will take place not only in Turkey but also in Iraq, because the U.S. in coming months will turnover the administration of Iraq to Iraqis and the reconstruction process of the country will speed up.

Turkey in general has a negative impression of Kurds. The Kurds living either in Turkey or in Iraq have territorial pretensions on Turkey, according to Ankara.

This mentality which is quite wrong, fears of the possibility that a Kurdish state might be established in northern Iraq. Ankara thinks that a Kurdish State there, will encourage the Kurds in Turkey to form their own state on Turkey’s lands or Kurds in Turkey will demand to unite with this Kurdish State in northern Iraq.

Turkey has left its northern Iraq policy to the military since 1966. The result we obtained from this policy is clear. Turkey should from now on take this issue in a realist way rather than evaluating the issue from the perspective of the military.

The key is in Bush’s hands once again
Relations with the U.S. will be the third issue which will dominate Turkey’s agenda in 2004. First of all, the whole world will wait for the results of the Erdogan-Bush meeting on Jan.28. No one has a doubt that this meeting will be successful.

This meeting is very important. Turkey’s relations with the U.S. were destroyed after the rejection of the March, 1 motion. However, Turkey succeeded in mending ties with the U.S. If Turkey receives the support of Washington again, this will be a great advantage to Turkey. On a series of issues, like inflation, EU membership, Cyprus and Iraq, the key is once again in the hands of Washington.