Prodi’s Turkey visit and expectations for 2004

After the latest summit headed by Germany and France, six EU countries declared their wish to cap future EU spending. In a letter sent to Prodi, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the UK and Austria — countries which pay most into the EU’s coffers — said that expenditure should not exceed 1 percent of the EU’s gross national income (GNI) from 2007 onwards.

This move will badly hit Spain and Poland, which were expected to be the biggest beneficiaries from the EU budget. Spain for example received 8.2 billion EUR from the 2003 EU Budget which was around 91 billion EUR.

Prodi, will leave his post in August 2004, and most probably return to Italain domestic politics. This gives Prodi’s visit another significance. It will not be just an EU visit, but also a visit from a potential prime minister of a country which may be very important in realizing Turkey’s aspirations. Prodi constituted his cabinet with significant figures from Italian politics. Ankara will also have the chance to meet these figures whose opinion assists Prodi in directing his presidency.

Another figure who is going to accompany Prodi will be the EU Commissoner for Enlargement Gunther Verheugen. Verheugen is working on a new calender for Turkey, with reflections on Turkish reforms from the time period June-Oct.

Thus, the visit is going to be very important for Turkey on the way to the EU and will be the start of the long marathon of 2004, which will result with a yes or a final no for Turkish membership.

Turkey’s strong determination showed the EU that any offer falling short of full membership will be rejected by Ankara. Brussels now has no other option other than accepting Turkey or delaying an answer until some time later.