The new Turkey perception of Turkey

The European Union buraucracy, like us, has just come out of vacation period. No dossier was opened in August. Nowadays, the bureaus are filling again and the rotary starts to roll again.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul have completed their first contacts. My talks with both people who participated in that visit and with the European Commission authorities in Brussels, have produced the photograph of the current situation. We should not forget, however, that this photograph will change in the coming weeks. With ups and downs, it will sail through the 16-month period.

There is a psychological barricade
If we start from Germany, the approach of the Schroeder government towards Turkey is greately different compared to few months ago. There is a more positive approach towards Turkey to be given a date in December 2004 for the start of accession talks. Particularly, Foreign Minister Fischer is not hiding his pleasure over the new steps, the judicial amendments that could be considered as reform, Turkey has taken.

There is another flank in the government who stay at a distance from Turkey. They are more suspicious of Turkey.

The buraucrats in Brussels wonder to what extent the Turkey issue will be made a subject of polemic by German conservatives in the local elections and at the parliamentary elections in June.

If the conservative party open a campaign with the claim that "The social democrats will admit Turkey in the EU and cause not only a crisis in the labor market but bring us under an unaffordable economic burden" it is anticipated that things will become very difficult for Schroeder. That is so because Turks are not at all popular in Germany. Any attitude in favor of Turkey may cause erosion of votes. Therefore, the situation in Germany is clear. The pendilum now forecasts a positive climate, but no one can make a definitive judgement.

Now, let’s have a look at the French gocvernment’s attitude….

In France, with the saying of EU bureaucrats, a "psychological blockade" is being lived. The words of top French officials, who eventually will be the decision makers on this issue, keep on saying the same thing: "Let’s not hurry on Turkey. Let’s take steps slowly otherwise we will put ourselves in a deadlock from which there could be no return."

There is a total undecisiveness, hesitance in Paris.

When and who will decide?
The decision of the EU on Turkey will be made by the Paris-Berlin duo. A date on which these two capitals agree on is not expected to be disputed by the others.

According to EU bureaucrats in Brussels, this decision will be made in the October-December period of 2004. No one anticipates a decision before then.

The Paris-Berlin duo will make that decision but the attitudes of the other members and particularly the situation in Iraq will have a serious effect on that decision.

In the mean time, an interesting observation of the recent visits is that Turkey’s troop dispatch to Iraq without a UN resolution will not create a negative or strong reaction in Paris or Berlin. This has to be noted.

What will the October report be like?
Currently, the "Progress Report" that will be issued in the October-November period is at draft stage. In the coming weeks it will be fine-tuned and then opened to debate at the Commission.

A senior official with insight of the report, said just these:

"…The reforms Turkey has undertaken will be explained and praised. It will be stated that everything was not completed and implementation is expected. In short, it will be an open-ended report."

The language of this report is extremely important. Then, in October 2004 the last report will be issued. The importance of these documents is that the member countries will use the findings of these to substantiate their decision. Since they would not be able to say "Nevermind, we still want Turkey if the reports were negative, the contents of these reports must be written as positive as possible.

To what extent will Cyprus be an obstacle?
Of course, an issue wondered by everyone is to what extent the continuation of the Cyprus problem will have a negative effect on the EU.

If a settlement could not be reached by the end of the coming May, the Cyprus file will be closed in favor of Greek Cypriots. In the official talks Turkey has been giving a clear message: "Tell us this or that way that in December 2004 we may get a date. Then our approach to the Cyprus problem could seriously change."

This approach has logic. Although some countries have been saying that Turkey is blackmailing the EU over Cyprus, Ankara is right in trying to avoid the risk of not being able to get a date although it moved on the Cyprus issue. The current appearance is that this position is not creating a problem at least in the European Commission. Will the Cyprus knot be solved or not will become more clear after the December elections on the island.

The situation on the EU front is as such for the time being. If Turkey avoids a major mistake, it appears as if it will get a date.