Biden walks NATO tightrope with Turkey over wars in Syria and Ukraine

President Joe Biden’s administration is seeking to strike the right balance in dealing with NATO ally Turkey, as it threatens a ground offensive against U.S. partners in Syria while simultaneously playing a key diplomatic role in the middle of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

After authorizing four cross-border ground offensives into Syria over the past five years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly threatened this year to launch a fifth in response to what he sees as a persistent presence of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northeastern Syria. These warnings increased earlier this month after a suicide bombing blamed on the group rocked Istanbul, killing six and injuring dozens more on the iconic Istiklal Avenue.

Ankara responded by launching “Operation Claw-Sword,” a sweeping campaign of hundreds of airstrikes against largely Kurdish-held positions, including those maintained by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Pentagon-backed militia in control of much of northeastern Syria, as well as other Kurdish positions allegedly tied to the PKK in neighboring northern Iraq.

Turkish officials view a number of Kurdish-led groups, including the SDF and its People’s Protection Units (YPG), as arms of the PKK. Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu went as far as to reject U.S. condolences over the Istanbul bombing, arguing that Washington was complicit in the act due to its support of Kurdish factions across the border.

Now SDF leadership say they face a dire situation. Newroz Ahmed of the SDF General Command told a virtual roundtable Monday that, “this time, we believe that they are very serious about launching this ground operation.”

Ahmed said the timing is particularly opportune for Ankara, not only due to elections next year, in which Erdogan would vie to extend his presidency, but also because “a lot of countries are very busy with what’s happening in Ukraine,” where a war launched by Russia in February has commanded a significant amount of foreign policy attention from both Moscow and Washington.

The two rival powers were once united in their criticism of Turkey’s previous threats to wage a new ground war in Syria, but Ahmed said that has changed.

“The guarantor countries in the area are also busy,” she explained, “and their positions against those that Erdogan and the Turkish government are putting in place have not been strong to a level to deter the Turks from launching the operation.”

Ahmed emphasized that “the Western position,” in particular, “is not as strong as it was before the fighting started in Ukraine.”

Asked by Newsweek if she was concerned about Washington’s lasting commitments to the SDF, she said that, so far, “all the positions that have been stated publicly and privately from the United States to the SDF indicate that the U.S. is committed to all the joint interests of the SDF and the United States.”

But, she added that “we will see what the future will hold.”

Both Turkey and the SDF accuse one another of backing terrorist organizations as Syria’s civil war drags on through a 12th year.

Ahmed argued that, in addition to disrupting civilian life at non-military targets such as schools and hospitals, “we have seen the strikes obviously supporting ISIS,” and that the militant group officially known as the Islamic State has “increased the level of activities and attacks against us” during the Turkish bombardment.

This account echoed that of SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi, who spoke at a separate online briefing held Tuesday.

“We have started to see in parallel with the Turkish airstrikes and Turkish activities against us,” Abdi said, “that there are additional movements and additional activities of ISIS cells.”

SDF officials have frequently accused Ankara of directly supporting ISIS by backing like-minded Islamist factions comprising the Turkey-backed rebel groups operating in the last opposition strongholds of northern Syria. Previous Turkish incursions have seen hardline movements extend their presence in the region, and the SDF fears another operation will only push Kurdish forces further back from the border.

And once again mirroring Ahmed’s remarks, Mazloum noted that the statements by international players, including the U.S., criticizing Turkey’s plans “are not strong enough to deter the Turks from launching this offensive.”

For its part, Turkey has rejected any association with ISIS, which is also known by the Arabic-language acronym Daesh.

“Türkiye is a member of the Global Coalition fighting DAESH,” officials from the Turkish Embassy in Washington, D.C. told Newsweek. “We are the only NATO Ally that has put boots on the ground and fought DAESH chest-to-chest since the outset.”

The Turkish officials argue that it was the “PKK/YPG terrorist organization” that, “for long, has been collaborating with DAESH and its affiliates to stage attacks in the west of Euphrates against Syrians — about which we duly informed all the relevant interlocutors.”

“We have time and again pointed out threats against our national security posed by the PKK/YPG terrorist network in Syria and Iraq,” the Turkish officials said. “We have always called for unequivocal and genuine solidarity in the face of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.”

“Notwithstanding, the terrorist organization continued its attacks,” they added, “recently targeting innocent civilians in the heart of Istanbul,”

The officials argued that the group’s “cruel side” went beyond the recent attack in Istanbul, and could be seen in the fact that “the number of terrorist attacks emanating from Syria and targeting Turkish soldiers as well as civilians alike has reached well over 2,000.”

It was this extended history of attacks that has been used as the justification for “Operation Claw-Sword,” which the Turkish officials argued has been “carried out in strict alignment with international law, notably Türkiye’s right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter as well as the relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council on combatting terrorism.”

“We are guided by the ultimate goal of ensuring the protection of the Turkish borders and striking at the root of terrorism,” the officials added. “Terrorist shelters, hideouts, fortifications, their so-called HQs and training centers constituted legitimate targets in this regard. Thanks to this well-planned and executed operation, no civilians in the area lost their lives.”

Redirecting SDF claims against the group itself, the Turkish officials argued that it was the PKK and YPG that had targeted schools and other civilian areas.

“Türkiye is resolute in her efforts countering terrorism in all its forms and manifestations,” the Turkish officials said. “Our determination to eliminate this threat against our national security will continue unabated. We have been coordinating and de-conflicting, as appropriate, with our allies and partners accordingly.”

In addition to being a key actor in Syria, Turkey has also played a prominent role in the Ukraine conflict, sending advanced Bayraktar drones to Ukrainian forces, while at the same time serving as virtually the only effective mediator to the conflict. Turkey emerged as a host to early Russia-Ukraine talks that ultimately unraveled, and then in July managed to broker a deal allowing the release of critical grain exports held up in Ukrainian ports by the ongoing war.

As a NATO member, Turkey also gets a vote on major decisions undertaken by the alliance, including a recent decision to admit Finland and Sweden. Erdogan had previously come out against the move, citing what he saw as a lax policy on the part of the two Nordic states toward the PKK, though the Biden administration has sought to smooth out these tensions to reach a mutually agreeable solution.

“Turkey, Sweden and Finland are engaging directly, as well as with NATO, to make sure that Turkey’s concerns are fully addressed, including concerns about its security,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a press briefing in Bucharest on Wednesday. “That process has been moving forward. And I’m very confident – and again, based on what I’ve heard these last couple of days – that Finland and Sweden will soon be formally new members of the alliance.”

Though Russia and Turkey also back opposing sides to the conflict in Syria, the two nations have also hammered out agreements for ceasefires and joint patrols in contested areas of the country’s north, often eclipsing past U.S. diplomatic efforts in the same region. More recently, Moscow has sought to find an arrangement to normalize Ankara’s ties with Damascus, and to reconcile the feud between the SDF and the Syrian government as well.

As for the Biden administration’s current position on the situation in Syria, U.S. officials have been careful to both acknowledge Turkey’s concerns over potential PKK actions while ultimately calling for its ally to de-escalate.

“The escalation in Syria and along the Turkish-Syrian border in recent days is dangerous and a threat to the safety of civilians and U.S. personnel in Syria,” a State Department spokesperson told Newsweek. “We have also expressed our deep concern and sincere condolences for the loss of civilian life that has occurred on both sides of the border as a result of the recent escalation.”

The spokesperson also confirmed that the Biden administration has emphasized its concerns to its counterpart in Ankara.

“While we do not comment on diplomatic discussions, we can say that many U.S. officials have emphasized to their Turkish counterparts that military escalation that destabilizes the situation in Syria will not resolve Turkey’s legitimate security concerns related to terrorism,” the spokesperson said. “We have urged all parties to immediately de-escalate.”

The spokesperson said that Washington was in contact with the SDF, and also noted that the recent and future Turkish actions could negatively impact the Defeat-ISIS (D-ISIS) campaign.

“We have consistently communicated to Turkey and to our local Syrian partners our serious concerns about the impact of escalation on our D-ISIS goals and on civilians on both sides of the border,” the spokesperson said.

“We have strongly opposed military action that further destabilizes the lives of communities in Syria and risks the Global Coalition’s hard-earned progress against ISIS,” the spokesperson added.