All eyes on Nicosia trip

The plan, sponsored by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan had faltered in March at a meeting at The Hague when the two sides on the island demanded substantial amendments be made in it before they could accept it be referred to separate refernda on the island.

Although neither of the two sides accepted the Annan plan, however, the blame of the failure of the Cyprus peace bid of the U.N. secretary-general was squarely laid on the shoulders of Denktas in a report submitted to the Security Council.

Lately, both sides on the island have appeared "willing" to have further talks on the Annan plan, but according to reports from New York the secretary-general has sent a message to the two sides, as well as Ankara and Athens that unless Papadopoulos and Denktas commit themselves to submit the plan to separate referenda, the U.N. would not undertake any further role in the Cyprus peace making.

Denktas has also been demanding the Greek Cypriot side accept face-to-face talks to discuss a set of confidence building measures, a portion of which, such as opening of the buffer-zone gates, started to be unilaterally exercised by the Turkish Cypriot side.

In the proposals of Denktas there was also a paragraph on handing over the once-sprawling tourist resort Varosha suburb of Famagusta to Greek Cypriots in exchange of lifting of the international embrago on the Turkish Cypriot people.

According to Greek Cypriot sources and media reports, the Greek Cypriot side also expects a "move" from the Turkish premier on the Varosha issue.

Denktas recently declared that although Varosha was within Turkish Cypriot territory, because of a pledge Turkey made to the U.N. that the now-deserted former touristic resort would be handed to the Greek Cypriot side in a peace deal, it was up to Turkey’s to act on the issue.

Still, both Turkish and Turkish Cypriot official sources have told the Turkish Daily News that the Varosha issue will not be on the agenda of Erdogan on his Nicosia trip.

Other expectations of the Greek Cypriot side include the opening of the Cyprus air corridors to civilian air traffic, as well as lifting of a decision by Turkey not to allow Greek Cypriot flagged ships dock at Turkish ports.

There has been widespread speculations in southern Cyprus that Erdogan may also declare a phased-out withdrawal of the Turkish army during the trip. Yet, this was denied both by Turkish and Turkish Cypriot authorities.

"They have far-fetched imaginations," President Denktas said on the reports of a possible Turkish withdrawal, adding the Turkish army will withdraw from the island when a final settlement providing full security to the Turkish Cypriot people was reached.

Possible developments
* According to well-placed sources, Erdogan is expected to propose during his visit to northern Cyprus lifting of all embargoes mutually. The sources said Erdogan is anticipated to issue a call to both the Greek Cypriot administration and the European Union and offer lifting of Turkish embargoes on the Greek Cypriot state in exchange of lifting of embargoes on Turkish Cypriots.

* The Turkish premier is also anticipated to officially declare an already known decision of the Turkish Cypriot state to provide scholarships for ten Greek Cypriot students at each of the five universities in northern Cyprus.

* Erdogan is also expected to formally announce lifting of the travel restrictions imposed on the United Nations peace keeping force in Cyprus (UNFICYP), in effect since June 2000. This point was also covered in the 6-point goodwill measures Denktas offered to Papadopoulos last month. The Denktas proposals were abruptly rejected by the Greek Cypriot side.

* The Turkish prime minister is also expected to declare that direct telephone communication between the two sides of the island will be opened. The Greek Cypriot side has already taken a decision on this issue.

* Erdogan is not expected to declare a reduction in the number of Turkish troops on Cyprus, but the Turkish Cypriot government is anticipated to declare during Erdogan’s trip that the compulsary conscription period for the Turkish Cypriot Security Forces will be reduced from the current 24 months to 12 months.