Are you prepared to launch a mobilization drive for EU?

Now we have two important dates ahead of us.

The first one is October 2003.

On that date the EU Commission will draft its annual progress report. As in the case of any other candidate country it will look into the matter of whether Turkey has fulfilled the Copenhagen criteria.

That report will be extremely important. The EU heads of state and government will take decisions at the 2004 summit on the basis of that report. So Turkey has to pass all the adjustment to the EU bills by September.

The second date is May 2004.

In May 2004 Cyprus will be a full member of the EU in practice, sitting at the EU table, gaining the power to push at the decision-making button.

Since May 2004 is the deadline for reaching a solution in Cyprus the parties concerned must reach an agreement by then. Beyond that date it will be too late. Once Greek Cypriots actually become a full member of the EU they will either launch their own kind of solution or they will expand their margin for bargaining.

Cyprus is not a key that would open the door to Turkey’s full membership. On the other hand, Cyprus is a key that would keep the door firmly closed to Turkey’s full membership if no solution can be found. It would be highly useful to view the quests for a Cyprus solution in this perspective.

During the same period the Aegean problem too must be solved or at least taken to the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Maybe Cyprus and the Aegean can be solved as part of a single package.

Sixth package coming soon
Prior to the Progress Report to be issued by the Commission in October 2004, Turkey is drafting the Sixth Adjustment Package which is expected to be passed by Parliament during the May-June period. The package contains four extremely important factors:

– The package would scrap the "diminishing factors" defendants benefit from in "honor crime" cases. Also, regardless of whether the crimes committed were terrorism-related or not, murder convicts would be given the same punishment.

– It would scrap the National Security Council’s (MGK) power to nominate a candidate for Supreme Radio-TV Board (RTUK) membership.

– It would cancel Article 8 of the Anti-Terrorism Law, that is, the article that restricts the freedom of thought.

– Foundations and associations would be more free in their activities.

– Opening places of worship would be facilitated regardless of the religion involved.

– Broadcasting in "other" languages and dialects would be permitted.

2004 will be the year of implementation
Here is the road map:

* All the adjustment bills will be passed by the end of 2003.

* In 2004 the focus will be on the implementation. Turkey will have the opportunity to show on the basis of specific cases that it has not passed these bills to pull the wool on anybody’s eyes, that it is indeed implementing them.

* During the same period — especially during the first half of 2004 the Cyprus and Aegean problems will be solved.

* The Turkish Republic will maintain a large-scale EU-oriented campaign in which the prime minister, the journalists, the academics and the business world too would take part.

The final decision would be obtained from the EU’s December 2004 summit meeting.

EU mood changing
Meanwhile we are faced with a highly interesting development.

A series of messages received from the EU — in recent weeks especially — indicate that the accession talks with Turkey may begin in 2005 and that full membership can materialize in 2011. The EU officials, who used to focus on the empty half of the glass, are, for the first time, trying to see the glass in a different way.

The Iraq War too has obviously played a part in this. In the eyes of the EU public especially there is a growing impression to the effect that Turkey has not been in the USA’s "pocket".

The EU governments, meanwhile, now seem to think that if Turkey complies with the Copenhagen criteria no further grounds can be found to postpone Turkish membership any further. The EU governments are obviously coming under pressure.

To sum up, if Turkey makes use of this final chance Turkey can obtain in December 2004 a date for the start of the accession talks, thus guaranteeing the full membership.