US won’t write off Turkey but…

Middle East expert and leading columnist Cengiz Candar says the U.S. sees the current administration in Turkey as a liability and will want to "put the house in order in Ankara" before it deals with Ankara again in earnest.

"How will the U.S. rely on the Ankara government to help if there are new trouble spots exploding in the Balkans or the Caucasus? This is the question being asked amongst some quarters in Washigton," Candar stresses.

He also says the fact that Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul will be going to Damascus today is raising eyebrows among American officials as if this is a challenge to Washington. Candar says timing in diplomacy is of great importance and when you set out to visit Damascus and also make a statement that Turkey, Syria and Iran will cooperate for stability in the Gulf this is regarded as a direct challenge to Washington. Candar says the message they get out of all this in the U.S. is "if you toy around with us in Turkey we will slap you in the face like this."

Candar says it would not be in the interest of the U.S. to write off Turkey but says the Americans will diminish their presence here and also reduce their dealings with Ankara. "The Americans need the Turkish hinterland."

Another prominent foreign relations expert and prominent columnist Sami Kohen also agrees that the U.S. will not turn its back on Ankara completely, but warned that the geostrategical importance of Turkey for the U.S. may not be the same as it was three months ago.

He said the U.S. may phase out some of its military presence in Turkey and shift its forces to other countries. Some observers say the Americans may set up four bases in Iraq.

However, Turkish and foreign diplomatic sources said it will be rather difficult for the U.S. to settle down in Iraq and set up bases. "No one knows what will happen in Iraq tomorrow. There is some anti-American antagonism which may prove hard for the U.S. to set up roots in Iraq. It is also one thing setting up bases and something else sustaining such bases in an antagonistic environment," said a leading Turkish official who asked not to be named.

Kohen says Turkey, with its political importance and important economic structure, is still a valuable geostrategical partner for any country, but Turks have to sell this to the world.

"It is no use saying I have plenty of gold. It is how you use that gold that matters and Turkey has missed a golden opportunity before the Iraq war to capitalize on its geostrategical importance and military strength," he stresses.

Kohen said some Turks entertained the view that the U.S. could not do anything without Turkey and they were seriously wrong. "Now people will realize that the world can do without us and it is up to us to prove our importance by providing lucrative projects to the West."

Kohen stressed that Turkey’s unique democratic experience, its secularist system and its cultural heritage could offer many solutions to the problems of the Middle East and thus is of great importance as a model for the West.

He agreed that the failure of Turkey to allow American troops on Turkish soil was a great mistake and that it had hurt relations with the U.S.

Diplomatic sources said while the U.S. will not openly take an antagonistic approach on Turkey there are many hints that Washington will not forgive Ankara so easily.

President George W. Bush did not mention the alleged "Armenian genocide" in his annual message to the Armenians, thus angering them while pleasing Ankara, but sources say such gestures are limited to words. "While President Bush sounds friendly there are moves in the U.S. to bar Turkish companies even as subcontractors in Iraq," a source close to the government said.