International report – Armenia and Azerbaijan peace deal raises hopes of Turkish border reopening

The deal, brokered by US President Donald Trump, commits both countries to respect each other’s territorial integrity – the issue at the centre of bloody wars.

The agreement is seen as paving the way for Turkey to restore diplomatic ties with Armenia.

“Ankara has been promising that once there is a peace agreement, it will open the border,” says Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

“There was a brief period in the post-Soviet era when it [the border] was opened, but that was quickly shut again due to the Armenian-Azeri tensions.”

Aydintasbas says reopening the border could have wide-reaching consequences.

“Armenia and Turkey opening their border and starting trade would be a historical moment in terms of reconciliation between these two nations, which have very bitter historic memories,” she adds.

“But beyond that, it would help Armenia economically because it’s a landlocked country entirely dependent on Russia for its protection and its economy.”

Turning point

In June, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. The meeting was seen as a turning point in relations long overshadowed by the memory of the 1915 Armenian Genocide, which Ankara still officially denies.

“There’s now a degree of personal chemistry between the Armenian prime minister and Erdogan. This was seen in a June historic meeting, the first ever bilateral contact, a face-to-face meeting,” says Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Centre, a think tank in Yerevan.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 after ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan seized the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.

The enclave was retaken by Azerbaijani forces in 2022. Giragosian says the peace deal, along with warmer ties between Pashinyan and Erdogan, could now help Yerevan reach a long-sought goal.

“In the longer perspective for Turkey and Armenia, this is about going beyond the South Caucasus. It’s about Central Asia. It’s about European markets, potentially a new Iran in the future,” he says.

Erdogan congratulated Pashinyan on Monday over the deal, but made no official pledge on reopening the border. That decision may lie with Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev.

“They [Ankara] will be looking to Baku. Baku is basically able to tell Turkey not to move on normalisation with Armenia, not to open the border,” says Aydintasbas.

“Part of the reason is that Turkey has developed an economic dependency on Azerbaijan, which is the top investor in Turkey. In other words, little brother is calling the shots, and I think that Ankara, to an extent, does not like it, but has come to appreciate the economic benefits of its relationship with Azerbaijan.”

Azerbaijani demands on Armenia

Azerbaijan is also pushing for changes to Armenia’s constitution, which it claims makes territorial claims on Nagorno-Karabakh.

“The Armenian constitution refers to the Declaration of Independence of Armenia, which has a clear clause on the unification with Armenia, with Nagorno-Karabakh,” says Farid Shafiyev of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations, a Baku-based think tank.

Shafiyev warned that without reform, the peace deal could unravel.

“Let’s say, imagine Pashinyan losing elections, a new person says: ‘You know, everything which was signed was against the Armenian constitution.’ For us, it is important that the Armenian people vote for the change of the constitution,” Shafiyev says.

Analysts note that changing the constitution would require a referendum with more than 50 percent turnout – a difficult and time-consuming process.

Time, however, may be running short. Russia is seen as the biggest loser from lasting peace in the Caucasus. For decades Moscow exploited the conflict to play Armenia and Azerbaijan against each other.

Pashinyan is now seeking to move away from Russian dominance and closer to Europe.

Giragosian warned that Armenia’s window of opportunity is limited.

“There is a closing window of opportunity – that is Russia’s distraction with everything in Ukraine. We do expect a storm on the horizon, with an angry, vengeful Putin reasserting or attempting to regain Russia’s lost power and influence in the region.”

Weakening Russia’s grip remains key, he adds. “Armenia, after all, is still a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, the Russian-dominated trade bloc.

“But it’s also a country that has a Russian military base. Russia still manages the Armenian railway network, for example. This is why, for Armenia, the real key here is going to be Turkey and normalising relations with Turkey.”

At present, Armenia’s only open land borders are with Georgia and Iran – both close to Russia. Opening the Turkish border would give Armenia a vital new route, while also benefiting Turkey’s economically depressed border region.

But for now, Azerbaijan may seek further concessions before allowing any breakthrough.