Türkiye Electricity Review 2023 | Ember
In order to reach these solar power targets, Türkiye has to increase the pace of new solar installations almost immediately. Over the course of the last five years, the country deployed around 1.2 GW of new solar power plants annually. The plan foresees 2.8 GW capacity addition every year between 2022 and 2025, while targeted annual new capacity reaches 4 GW between 2030-2035.
No ambition in wind, increase in coal capacity
Despite ambitious plans for solar, Türkiye’s new energy plan lacks ambition for wind deployment. The projected annual wind capacity addition between 2022 and 2030 is even lower than annual new wind installations in the last five years. Indeed, the wind and solar capacity targets for 2030 (18 and 32 GW respectively) are lower than the wind and solar capacities necessary to halve foreign dependence in power generation in comparison to 2021 (30 GW wind and 40 GW solar).
The new energy plan lacks clarity for coal. While the policy paper states that coal generation will decrease year by year, it also projects a rise in coal power capacity by 2.5 GW by 2035. Doing so negates any potential ‘no new coal’ pledge from the government, and leaves unclear how the planned decrease in coal will be implemented. The plan also projects a 10 GW additional gas power capacity by 2035, up from 25 GW in 2022.
Capacity allocation barrier against solar
Continued barriers for solar deployment raise questions about the ambitious solar power capacity targets of the country. In particular, the lack of sufficient grid capacity allocated for solar power has been one of the biggest hurdles in recent years.
Türkiye organizes only 1 GW solar power auctions every year, linked to domestic manufacturing obligations. The government has also supported domestic manufacturing by applying a levy on Chinese solar panels since 2017. Backing domestic panels has caused a boom in domestic solar panel manufacturing capacity. However, this capacity is only marginally utilized, as Türkiye deployed only 1.6 GW solar power plants in 2022.
Until recently it was not possible to secure grid capacity for a utility-scale licensed solar power plant project. New legislation issued in November 2022 has enabled wind and solar projects paired with energy storage facilities of the same size to more easily obtain licenses. However, only 30 GW capacity is allocated by the transmission system operator for this purpose, although the applications have already exceeded 165 GW in only two months. Furthermore, the required batteries will raise the costs of project development, making the timeline for delivery less certain.
The recent capacity allocation announcement by the Transmission System Operator also paints a bleak picture, allocating 160 MW new capacity for hybrid power plants. As a hybrid power plant allows more than one power generation source (such as hydro and solar) to be combined in one, the lack of new hybrid capacity will block the country from realizing its vast floating solar potential on its large dams.
Everything starts with a plan
Despite shortcomings, Türkiye’s new energy plan improves the country’s wind and solar targets. The wind and solar capacity targets submitted as a part of its Nationally Determined Contribution in 2015 were to reach 16 GW wind and 10 GW solar by 2030. Now these targets are 13% higher for wind and 230% higher for solar.
As one Turkish saying goes, “Well begun is half done”. Türkiye has made a very good first step with a heartening increase to its solar power targets especially. However, no plans can happen by themselves. Türkiye’s focus on solar in its energy plan now requires a focus on how to enable it.
