What is behind Turkey’s staunch support for Hamas in Gaza?

According to Ms Sari Ertem, Turkey’s pivot away from Israel and towards the Palestinians is due to the conservative and pro-Islamic grassroots of Mr Erdogan’s AKP party.

While Mr Erdogan’s support for the Palestinians is sincere, she says it also aimed at calming down the conservative-nationalist political groups, which did not see sufficient reaction from the AKP in the first days of the war.

The head of the main opposition Republican People’s Party in Turkey, Ozgur Ozel, called on the international community to act for Gaza, and the leader of the second biggest opposition party, Meral Aksener, has branded the Israeli prime minister a “terrorist”.

However, this support for Hamas has come at a cost for Turkey.

Turkey’s frayed relationship with Israel was restored only last year and then, within months of both countries reappointing their ambassadors, the war erupted. Turkey recalled its ambassador, and Israel’s envoy returned out of security concerns.

Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy, says President Erdogan is unlikely to change path.

“He has his domestic supporters and constituents, and he can’t ignore such pressure coming from within Turkey and his base,” Mr Cafiero argues.

He also says the president cannot ignore his desire to be considered as a strong Muslim leader.

“Erdogan is a respected head of state throughout the wider Islamic world, and he has regional and international supporters, too.”

Despite the rupture between the two countries, Ms Sarı Ertem believes it will not be too damaging.

“The anti-Israeli discourse, which becomes very much visible especially at times of serious civilian casualties caused by Israel on the Palestinian side, rarely disrupts the traditional Turkish foreign policy approach, which favours a balancing act,” she says.

“It has always continued its relations with Israel at least economically, if not politically. Turkish-Israeli relations have proved to be quite resilient despite all the ups and downs during history.”

Correction 4 January 2024: This article has been amended to make clear that the Mavi Mamara boat was leading a flotilla of boats carrying aid, rather than carrying aid itself.