Turkey’s Strategic Balancing Efforts Amid the US–China AI Confrontation

Turkey is increasingly focusing on building its own technological capabilities to reduce reliance on foreign technology. Investments in AI, defence technology and cyber capabilities are a priority, with the goal of bolstering Turkey’s national resilience and gaining it a level of independence in the global tech race. Turkey’s National Artificial Intelligence Strategy, launched in 2021, aims to make Turkey one of the top 20 countries in international AI indexes, focusing on education, research and development in AI technologies.

Turkey aspires to be a regional tech leader, with initiatives to develop homegrown AI applications and digital infrastructure. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ 2024-2028 Strategic Plan includes objectives such as developing a joint large language model with Turkic States, and notably, digitalisation is listed among its core values. Through the Turkic Council and other regional bodies, Turkey seeks to establish itself as a hub for technology in Eurasia. It should be stated that the same strategic document indicates that Turkey is open for further international collaboration in AI regulations. The country positions itself as a mediator that could benefit from relationships with both Eastern and Western powers.

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Techno-Political Rivalry

The Biden administration’s AI-focused NSM marks a pivotal moment in the US-China rivalry on AI. Through a coalition of like-minded nations, the US aims to not only secure technological leadership, but also establish ethical foundations for AI. As this rivalry intensifies, the US commitment to a rights-respecting, democratic approach to AI development is increasingly resonating with allies. The outcome of this strategy remains to be seen, but the US has set its sights on leading with a vision that blends technological advancement with democratic resilience, a course that could define the next era of global power.

In this landscape, Turkey’s role reflects a careful balancing act. By nurturing ties with both the US and China and focusing on developing its own technological capabilities, Turkey seeks to preserve strategic autonomy and flexibility. For the time being, this approach enables Turkey to strengthen its tech sector and secure regional influence, positioning itself as a versatile player without fully aligning with either the US or China’s AI ecosystems. However, the techno-political rivalry between the US and China, including in the field of AI, seems set to intensify even further. Will Turkey eventually have to make a choice? Only time will tell.

© Alp Cenk Arslan, 2024, published by RUSI with permission of the author

The views expressed in this Commentary are the author’s, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.

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