French ‘No’ to EU Constitution Could Affect Turkey

The prevailing opinion in Brussels is that a French "no" vote may cause a postponement in membership negotiations due to start with Turkey on October 3rd. Objectors to the Constitution are uniting against Turkey’s future membership to the EU. Is there, then, a direct connection between the EU Constitution and Turkey? The European Policy Center (EPC) Associate Director of Studies Giovanni Grevi, an expert on the EU Constitution, expressed that there is no legal link between the Constitution and Turkey, but that a political connection could occur as with any issue. Emphasizing that the French people have been losing confidence over the last four or five years, Grevi recalls the former EU Commissioner Mario Monti’s remarks that France "needs psychological therapy."

"The main emphasis here is the increasing importance of demography as an element in the EU’s decision-making mechanisms. With the double-majority system in the Council of Europe the influence of those countries with a high population will increase further. If Turkey becomes an EU member in 2015, it will be the country with the highest population. The same is valid for the European Parliament (EP) too and Turkey will be the most important country in the EP. As for the labor issue, each enlargement wave has brought with it anxiety that EU citizens will lose their jobs. Those concerns are not only about Turkey, but about all new members. Past experience shows that what had been feared never happened. There is no rational reason to reject Turkey in 10 years if Turkey complies with the EU criteria and continues her current economic development momentum, which will progress further with the negotiations," says Grevi and adds France has turned the debate on the Constitution into a channel for their complaints. Pointing out that Turkey has become the mirror for these complaints, the EPC director stresses that Turkey’s membership will interrupt the functioning of neither the EU nor the Constitution. He notes that some would deeply damage the idea of Europe. Grevi concludes that the main opposition against Turkey in fact derives from peopl