Use of Incirlik depends on Iraq

The evolving state of the relationships between the Turks, Americans and Iraqi Kurds are the main determining factors impacting the future use of a critical Turkish air base by U.S. forces.

The Turks are wary of U.S. intentions regarding the future of northern Iraq, while the United States still holds the belief that Turkey’s rulers maintain solidarity with the Sunni/Baathists of Iraq, not the Iraqi people. Turkey also has a deep suspicion about Washington’s future plans for Iran and Syria. How, under such circumstances, can the old NATO allies find a common ground over Incirlik?

Turkey did not let the Unites States use Incirlik for military purposes during the 2003 Iraq war invasion, prompting the U.S. Air Force to deploy fighters there from other bases.

Analysts suggest that the only remaining obstacles to a formal agreement over Incirlik are the Iraq dispute and a resulting wave of anti-Americanism in Turkish public opinion.