Bush re-elected

This election divided the United States right down the middle. Confusion in Ohio, similar to that which took place in Florida in the last election, damaged the respectability of the oldest democracy in the world.

Bush, in the second and last term in office, will try to eradicate polarization within the United States and the world because it appears that it will be very hard to rule over either without reaching a certain degree of consensus.

The main problem faced by the world and the United States is the new security threat of terrorism. The matter needs to be reassessed and a global agreement needs to be reached. The threat posed by terrorism necessitates armed conflict in the short-term. In this respect, the concepts of "preemptive" or "preventive" strikes or legitimate self-defense needs to be defined clearly. These concepts need to be redefined by the United Nations. In the event of a conflict waged against a terrorist group with weapons of mass destruction, members of the U.N. may be forced to intervene in other countries without adhering to the conditions listed in article 51 of the U.N. Charter. The development of a legitimate self-defense concept that would result in U.N. Security Council approval for any intervention under such conditions would necessitate the resolving of complex legal problems.

The medium and long-term objectives in the conflict against terrorism will be the changing of the social infrastructure that spurs terrorism. When one considers that terrorism originates mostly in Middle Eastern, Muslim countries and Muslim groups, the prevention of the war on terrorism devolving into a clash of civilizations becomes a priority.

No one can ignore the fact that Middle Eastern Arabic terrorism is fed by the Palestinian problem. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat’s health situation may result in the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) developing a more collective democratic leadership. On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon being forced to implement the "road map" may become a priority for Bush in his second term in office. Efforts to win over the support of all the Islamic countries may help in finding a solution for the status of Jerusalem.

There is no doubt that initially all of Bush’s energy and attention will be concentrated on Iraq. According to the U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, the United States continues to lose ground in Iraq. Under these conditions, it seems very doubtful that the elections in Iraq will take place in January 2005. While the instability in the Sunni region continues, elections taking place in the Shiite and the Kurdish regions may result in the break-up of the country. This would be seen like a defeat for the United States. Kurds say they are in support of Iraq’s territorial integrity, but their policy concerning Kirkuk betrays their real intentions. The United States may be forced to curb Kurdish aspirations.

There is no doubt that there are serious socio-economic problems within Muslim countries. The resolution of these problems will depend on the intensification of the efforts on economic development and democratization. Everybody now knows that armed intervention for regime change creates more problems than it solves. In this respect, a U.S.-European Union common stance could be a new opportunity for the mending of Trans-Atlantic relations.

It is very important for us to harmonize our relations with the United States, as well as our relations with the EU in Bush’s second term. The EU is not a global force yet. The benefits and the influence any cooperative policy we might formulate together with the EU will be very limited in our region. The United States, on the other hand, plays a major role in the security and stability of the region. As long as the current balance of powers continues, the security cooperation between Turkey and the United States needs to be maintained. However, this cooperation seems to be linked to the developments concerning U.S. policy in Iraq. Turkey’s fears concerning Iraq may be better addressed if the United States becomes more open to cooperation with its allies.