PM seeks to lure French leaders to Turkey’s EU bid

Erdogan’s three-day official visit to the French capital is also designed to revamp bilateral relations between Ankara and Paris, which suffered a heavy blow two years ago when France, despite strong Turkish protests, publicly recognized allegations of a so-called Armenian genocide in 1915.

France’s heavyweight role within the EU clearly adds impetus to Ankara’s efforts to get diplomatic ties back on track since there is less than six months remaining to the December summit where EU leaders are due to decide on whether to bring Turkey closer to Europe.

Erdogan’s trip provides leverage as well to Paris, which is endeavoring to establish a cordial relationship with Ankara after being left out of Turkey’s lucrative trade and military tenders as well as facing a boycott of some French goods.

Turkish officials say there is now a common understanding between the two, and the historically cordial Turkish-French relationship should not be sacrificed as a result of interference by any third parties. The officials also state that the ground is ready for improvement.

For Erdogan, however, courting the French leadership can still be complicated, despite President Jacques Chirac’s cautious backing of Turkey’s EU aspirations last month on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Istanbul. While there, Chirac described Turkey’s progress towards Europe as "irreversible." But publicly known opposition within France’s ruling Union for a Popular Majority Party (UMP) to Turkish ambitions for Europe looks unlikely to disappear during Erdogan’s trip. Turkey’s large Muslim population and culture as well as a relatively poor economy are among the chief concerns in the ruling party’s ranks.

French ruling party faces leadership race
Moreover, the UMP now looks ready for a leadership battle within its ranks after former premier and one-time close Chirac advisor Allen Juppe stepped down from the top party post late last week.

Juppe earlier this year said countries on the periphery of the growing EU — such as Turkey — "have no business joining [the bloc], otherwise it will be diluted." Juppe’s position, which was supported at the time, was expected to become the official government line.

Juppe was among the leaders Erdogan had to convince. But following Juppe’s resignation, that meeting is unlikely to take place, consequently decreasing the Turkish premier’s direct chances of easing the opposition within the UMP during his visit.

French and Turkish officials in Ankara are playing down the objections within the ruling party by saying that according to the Constitution it is President Chirac who is in charge of French foreign policy and that he was personally in favor of setting a date at the December EU summit for launching entry talks with Turkey. Chirac has three years left in the presidential seat, with Juppe ultimately expected to challenge his former boss for the top job.

One of two possible candidates for the new UMP leadership is Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, a main Chirac rival who boosted his popularity as the president and Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffrain lost significant support in regional polls in French and European elections.

Like Juppe, Sarkozy previously said Turkey does not belong to Europe in terms of culture, history and geography. The other candidate, Raffarin, seems to date to have not differed much from President Chirac’s line on Turkey.

France’s main opposition group, the Socialist Party (PS), supports membership but says talks should not open until Turkey has admitted the allegations of a so-called Armenian genocide during the days of the Ottoman Empire. This issue is enormously sensitive to Turkey, which refutes such claims.

Erdogan’s messages
Erdogan is scheduled to meet Chirac and Raffarin together with French parliamentarians and businessmen for talks. Chirac and Raffrain are expected to praise the reform steps Ankara has so far taken but will tell Erdogan that any decision on Turkey will be based on a European Commission progress report due in October.

The Turkish premier, in return, will try to promote his case by explaining the headway Turkey has made in meeting EU criteria and underline Turkey’s need for getting a nod from the EU for the opening of formal entry negotiations.

He will try to allay French fears over the country’s 70-million-strong Muslim population as well as explain Turkey’s possible role model as a Muslim, but secular, country in its volatile region. Erdogan’s message will be clear enough to Paris, that Ankara does not expect to enter the EU as soon as its accession talks open and that it can wait until it is deemed fit to join.

The EU has long singled out Turkey’s much-criticized democracy and the division of Cyprus as major stumbling blocks on the country’s road to EU membership. Despite this, Turkey recently won praise for its efforts to catch up with EU norms, but Brussels says it still has to fully implement the reforms at ground level.

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) voted "yes" on a U.N blueprint in simultaneous referenda in April, but the Greek Cypriot people of the divided island of Cyprus voted "no." According to Turkish officials, Erdogan is eager to listen to the French point of view on the future of the division of Cyprus and will reiterate that the isolation of the KKTC should be brought to an end.

Erdogan and French leaders are also expected to exchange views on a number of international issues ranging from Iraq to Afghanistan and the Middle East.

On Iraq, both sides share similar views. Erdogan is expected to repeat Turkey’s official stance on Iraq’s territorial unity and inform French leaders about Ankara’s concerns on recent efforts to alter the demographic structure of the oil-rich Iraqi city of Kirkuk.

Erdogan is taking a large delegation of Turkish businessman to Paris in a bid to boost trade cooperation between the two countries. He is scheduled to meet with French businessmen and promote investment opportunities in Turkey.

Media reports say Erdogan could use the prospect of a large order of Airbus aircraft for Turkish Airlines (THY) to back his case for French support for membership.