EU Membership negotiations will start in 2005

Until a short while ago, it was thought that the EU Commission would just,

1. Write a detailed report on Turkey, but would make no recommendations to the EU Council (the heads of state and governments) about Turkey’s membership, leaving it up to them to decide.

2. Or would give a date in 2006 or 2007 and tie it another meeting to make a decision.

These doubts and fears are now irrelevant.

I had the opportunity to talk with EU Commission officials last week in Brussels during the EU summit. I also had the chance to speak with several Turkish officials, including Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. I witnessed a totally different outlook.

The opinion in the commission, in the words of a top-level official, is: "Turkey may not have reached the social level of Sweden or Denmark, but still it has reached a point to become eligible to start the negotiations. In terms of laws, it has fulfilled almost all of the Copenhagen Criteria. There are some deficiencies in practice, but these will be corrected in the future, during the negotiations … In summary, there is no important reason why we shouldn’t start membership negotiations with Turkey."

It is known that Turkish society does not act or think like Europeans, but this is expected to happen within a few years.

EU officials, who candidly say: "There is no reason left to say no or delay Turkey," note that the commission would not limit it self with a detailed report, but would also be making a definite recommendation to heads of state and governments.

And this recommendation, as I noted in the title, will be for starting the negotiations.

Many conditions and criticisms will be just for show
The commission report that is scheduled to be released in October will include many preconditions that most of us will not be pleased to hear and statements that will be mainly addressed at their own public, in addition to the recommendation to start the negotiations.

For example, in order to calm the EU public fear about "Turks becoming members in a few years," they will say that the start of the negotiations do not necessarily mean a country will become a full member.

The correction of the legal and practical deficiencies of Turkey in complying with the Copenhagen criteria will be set as preconditions. However, because the EU will start the negotiations, which is the most important aspect of the report for Turkey, preconditions set will not matter.

What is the date?
The only matter that is yet to be resolved is the date for the start of the negotiations.

The date I was told by top-level commission officials and bureaucrats was July-October 2005.

This period corresponds to the term-presidency of Britain. When you think about how supportive Britain is to Turkey’s membership, you will immediately realize that the EU Commission is trying to please British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

This date (especially July 2005) also is a sign by the EU Commission to please France and Germany. If you remember, the German-French proposal at the Copenhagen Summit was for the final decision on Turkey’s membership to be made on July 2005. Just because Turkey insisted was the decision was changed to an earlier date of December, 2004.

The common opinion within the commission now is for starting membership negotiations with Turkey in July, 2005.

On the other hand, Turkey is trying to exert pressure to start the negotiations on March 2005 at the latest.

The reason is important.

All the previous negotiations (in accordance with the Luxemburg and Helsinki decisions) were started in February or March.

Can the council put a stop to the developments?
The question we all ask is the same:

Can the opinion of the EU Commission all of a sudden change?

Can the EU Council (the heads of state and government of 25 member countries) ignore the recommendation of the commission? Can they reject Turkey despite all that has been said and done?

No and No…

The only ones that can ruin our chances is again ourselves. The crises or arguments we generate among ourselves can reach such a level that we may provide the ammunition for those who are against our membership. In other words, only we can stop this process.