Turkey’s Erdogan risks alienating conservative women voters

ISTANBUL — How did a popular soap opera called “Cranberry Sherbet” suddenly become one of the most heated discussion points before Turkey’s crucial elections on Sunday?

It’s all to do with a character called Nursema, and her shocking fate is pushing viewers to pose a tricky question: Who would she vote for? The answers are not comforting for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is seeking to extend his 20-year rule in the impending vote.

Nursema is a strong, bright and devout Muslim in the show, and millions of Turkish women can easily identify with her. Turkey’s legions of soap addicts were stunned by a brutal plot twist in which she is married off to an abusive husband by her conservative family. He attempts to rape her, then shoves her out of a window when she resists, almost killing her.

In early April, Turkey’s media watchdog reacted harshly to the harrowing storyline, doling out a fine to the makers of the series and slapping the drama with a temporary ban, which was revoked this week. The official version was that the authorities needed to step in to prevent the depiction of violence against women, but many observers say the government was disturbed by the critical portrayal of a religious family, in which women have little voice.

This is no sideshow for Erdoğan, an Islamist populist. The support of religiously conservative women has been vital to his rise to power. To many, he was a liberating figure because their life choices had previously been restricted by secularist governments that had excluded them from schools, universities, public and workspaces if they wore a headscarf. In theory, many believe he should be able to count on Nursema’s vote.

But it’s not that simple, and the topics raised in the drama cut into some of the most febrile social and political issues in the country.

Some of the same women who helped propel Erdoğan into power are now having doubts — on subjects ranging from mismanagement of the economy to women’s rights. Conjugal violence is an especially raw issue. The problem for Erdoğan politically is that he has been deserted by former allies and has had to go into coalition with increasingly extreme Islamist partners for this election, raising fears that Ankara could roll back protections against domestic violence. That’s where Nursema becomes intensely political. The series has been the topic of panels, debates, and articles and even provided the inspiration for a banner slogan for International Women’s Day on March 8. 

Losing the faith

Aysel (who asked for her family name to remain anonymous) is a self-declared fan of Nursema. She works as a caregiver with a family in Istanbul and says she supported Erdoğan’s ruling AK Party from the beginning.

She will not, however, be voting for him or his party this time.

“Women who covered themselves were scorned and restricted in this country. In the past, we could not enter certain spaces. That’s why we voted for them. But I lost my faith in them,” she said.

Aysel’s primary reasons for disillusion are mainly economic, and are particularly related to her hostility to Turkey’s culture of cronyism. Her four adult sons have good university educations, but are finding it very hard to advance their careers. “Wherever they apply, they are asked: ‘Do you have someone on the inside?’” she said, referring to the nepotism networks that often help people with contacts in the right places get jobs and win promotions. 

“We don’t have a contact anywhere. We thought a religious party would bring equality and fairness but as time passed we saw they did no such thing.”

Aysel said other family members are strong Erdoğan supporters and that they are fiercely arguing about who to vote for in this election. Her sons have already decided to vote for the opposition. 

The Social Democracy Foundation, a Turkish NGO, found that more than a third of women supporters might walk away from the AKP in these elections. Support for the AKP among Turkish women in 2018 was above 38 percent, but could fall this time around to less than 27 percent, according to its findings.

“The positions of conservative women, their distance or proximity [from the AKP] will be decisive in the elections,” Berrin Sönmez, a feminist activist and scholar, told POLITICO. “We observe some kind of an alienation and the ties are getting loose but we don’t know for certain whether this would mean a vote for the opposition,” she added. 

Compromising coalition

Still, Erdoğan could also prove to be a major factor for these women to vote for the AK Party one last time. Sönmez said that thanks to Erdoğan, conservative women have gained a status they do not want to lose, and that may inspire a sense of loyalty. 

Things are more likely to take a different course for young women who are suspicious of Erdoğan’s alliance with the Islamist New Welfare Party and the Kurdish Islamist HÜDA-PAR, an extension of a violent group known as Kurdish Hizbullah, known for criminal activities including torture and murder. 

The New Welfare Party has been displaying the names and pictures of male candidates on its election bus — but a woman candidate is shown only as a dark silhouette.

These two parties are seeking to bring a more Islamic lifestyle to Turkey, criminalize adultery, get rid of laws punishing violence against women and change the laws in the civil code governing the marrying age for young girls. 

“The alliance with HÜDA-PAR made women suspicious. Under AK Party rule, conservatism gave them mobility outside their homes, streets and neighborhoods. But with HÜDA-PAR, that mobility might disappear and women see it as a threat,” said Ayşe Çavdar, a researcher in cultural anthropology at Bard College, Berlin. 

“Women would like to live their conservatism as their choice. And HÜDA-PAR contradicts that,” she added.

‘Women should be strong like Nursema’

This debate has also reached the women politicians within the AK Party. Özlem Zengin, the AK Party’s group deputy chair in the parliament, has been targeted and threatened for defending the law that protects women and prevents violence against women. Zengin said the law was a red line when the New Welfare Party demanded its annulment during the negotiations with Erdoğan. 

“We need approximately 29 million votes for our esteemed president to be elected in the upcoming elections. At least 10 million of them are women. On such an important issue, is there any other issue that bothers women so much? We are so alone,” Zengin said. 

Erdoğan pulled out of the Istanbul Convention that prevents and combats violence against women in July 2021 with the argument that it facilitates homosexuality and undermines family values. 

According to the We Will Stop Femicides Platform of Turkey, 21 women were killed by men in April alone, and 23 were found dead under suspicious circumstances.

As for “Cranberry Sherbet,” the show remains deeply popular. Its success lies in the fact that many conservative women see themselves as Nursema, whose ambitions and dreams clash with established conservative family values. 

Aysel, the caregiver, said the series has many hidden messages and this disturbed some conservative families. 

“These people see female freedom as impertinence. But a woman should stand on her own two feet. Women should be strong like Nursema. I love the strong women of the series. Many women do.”