2004, vital year for the EU

All our efforts throughout the year will be directed to the result of Dec. 12. Uneasiness is creeping in already. If Turkey receives a date, the country will experience transformation. We will start looking at the world differently and visa versa. Of course, there is the flip side of the coin. If we don’t receive a date, then our trial really begins.

What will happen if we get a date to start negotiations?

Turkey will enter a golden era if Turkey receives a definite date, without reservations, to start its European Union accession negotiations.

We even now foresee what could happen.

Newspapers will feature headlines, such as "We defeated the EU," "We forced them to do what we wanted," getting carried away like we had won a major war.
Shares featured on the stock exchange will erupt and markets will be energized.
Interest rates will fall and with the elimination of six zeros from the TL, the dawn of a new era will be declared.
Economy will receive a major boost.
Ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) will say, "We promised and finally delivered," while the opposition will proclaim that receiving a date to start negotiations did not mean Turkey was already a full member.
Turkey’s international prestige will sky rocket and its room to maneuver will be greatly enhanced.
The attitudes of individuals not elected by the people, but who still rule from above the democratic system will change and the balance of power in the country will be reinforced.
What will happen if we don’t receive a date?

I can almost see the newspaper headlines. "Backstabbing Europe strikes again," "They lied and cheated," "They proved that they were a Christian club," "European era has ended" and "Didn’t we say so?"
A human witch-hunt will start and those who were for European Union membership will be accused of treason. There will be campaigns to withdraw Turkey from the international arena, severing relations with the EU with declarations like, "Turks have no friends but Turks."
Markets will suffer, stocks will decline, interest rates will increase and foreign exchange rates will appreciate.
Of course this will not be all. There will be many proposals prepared, including annulment of the customs union with the EU and an embargo against the union.
Turkey, with the hurt it feels from not overcoming its bad luck, will continue its life as a small country.
What if a definite "yes" or "no" comes out of the summit.

We have to be prepared.

Because, most probably, the EU will not say a definite "yes" like the way we want, nor will they shut the door on our face with a clear "no."

We have to expect a declaration in between these two extremes. It will be a declaration that will please everyone, while being open to interpretations by all.

Those who want Turkey’s accession delayed will say, "At least Turkey is not joining us now," while those supporting it will say, "At least Turkey will sit at the negotiation table."

Decisions taken by the EU are usually ambiguous. They are never black or white, always gray.

What could these be?

For example, negotiations could start at the end of 2005 or delayed until a time when there are certain improvements on several issues. Those who see the glass half full, will say, "we wont," while those who see it half empty will say, "Turkey has been delayed."

Who is for and against Turkey, right now?

If we look at who is for and against Turkey’s EU membership now, we see this.

Those who are the most supportive of Turkey’s membership are Italy, Britain, Spain, Germany, Belgium, Portugal and Greece.
Austria opposes Turkey’s membership the most. I don’t understand what is behind this unyielding opposition. Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Holland are also opposing our membership. I don’t know the reason, but these countries are cold towards Turkey. They keep a distance and seem not to have accepted the fact that Turkey could eventually become a member.
France is a case by itself. On the one hand, it gives out messages of support, while on the other hand in Paris, there seems to be an air of opposition. France’s attitude is very important. It soon has to decide what its stance is.
European Union candidate countries always have sponsors. Greece, the closest example, was sponsored by France in 1978. Turkey’s problem is that it still, at this point in time, has not found a sponsor that can lobby for it from the inside.

If the Cyprus issue had been resolved, Greece would have been our most active sponsor, but right now it cannot do that.

If the Cyprus issue is resolved, it will be harder for the EU to say "no."

If we look from an EU perspective, an intergovernmental common stance with respect to Turkey’s membership is yet to be found. In reality, there are very few countries that sincerely want Turkey to be a member. Any decision will be taken reluctantly. However, what can they do? They made a promise, signed the Ankara agreement and Turkey surprisingly implemented all the political conditions put in front of it.

There doesn’t seem to be any political reasons that could delay Turkey’s EU membership. That’s why saying "no" is hard.

There is no other reason left, so that’s why the Cyprus issue is taking the center stage these days.

It will be almost impossible to say "no" to Turkey. Only silly reasons, such as "We do not accept people with darker skins into the union," are left, and these types of arguments are not fitting with the EU.

In summary Tarzan (the EU) is in trouble….

Road map to the EU will last the whole year.

First, there will be Cyprus. Discussions will center on whether a resolution to the problem can be found before May 1, or not. Turkey, because it postponed the steps it had to take last year, will be pressed for time. However, if Ankara presents an acceptance plan, even if the Greek Cypriot side rejects it, the pressure will be off Turkey.
There are European parliament elections in June. Turkey is expected to be an issue of contention during these elections. The general outcome will affect the decision taken by the capitals at the end of the year. If there is a general anti-Turkish attitude during the elections, there will be trouble. If Turkey does not become a major issue, capitals of the EU member countries will have an easier time to think.
In October, the EU Commission will release its latest report and include a recommendation on what type of statement Turkey should receive in December. The report is considered very important.
Between October and December, we will see many meetings in EU capitals on what kind of decision to take on Turkey’s membership. EU countries will want to have made up their minds before the summit on Dec. 12.
And on Dec. 12, they will announce their decision on Turkey’s membership in Brussels.