10 Golden Rules for Turkey’s Accession Negotiations
Many Turkish people will find the negotiations frustrating and, at times, humiliating: this will not be a negotiation between two equals, since it is Turkey that wants to join a club that already has its own set of rules. Furthermore some EU governments are not convinced by the arguments for Turkish accession, and large sections of European public opinion remain hostile.
Neither the Turks nor the EU should let the issue of Cyprus derail the negotiations. The Cyprus problem has to be solved before Turkey joins the Union, but it does not have to be solved before negotiations start in October. Greek Cypriot Prime Minister [Tasos] Papadopulous is likely to be difficult, but if he is too difficult for too long, the other EU governments will push him firmly towards compromise. If the Turks can remain cool and rational about Cyprus, whatever the provocations, it will be easier for the other EU governments to lean on Cyprus – which they will do when necessary (as they did at the Brussels summit earlier this month).
For success in the years of negotiations ahead, the EU and Turkey should follow ten golden rules:
Golden rules for Turkey
1. Prove to the EU that Turkey is willing and able to do what it takes to become a member-state. The best way to convince sceptical member-states is to ensure consistent implementation of the measures agreed with the EU. That will be a long and arduous process because it requires extensive changes on the ground – in police stations, schools and local government all over Turkey.
2. Persuade the European public, not just the Commission and heads of government. Although the Commission will manage the negotiations, Turkey’s eventual accession depends on the member-states and their domestic politics. The Turkish government needs to persuade the whole panoply of EU opinion-formers – journalists, commentators, parliamentarians and business-people – that it can one day be an asset as a member-state. The eastward enlargement of the EU was a largely elite-led exercise, and no member-state held a referendum on it. But Turkey’s accession has to be accepted by the European public. France and Austria have already promised referendums on Turkish accession, and other member-states may follow. If just one country votes no to Turkish accession, Turkey cannot join.
3. Ask the United States to refrain from calling too loudly for Turkey’s admission to the EU. Such calls are very counter-productive, raising hostility in some of the member-states, which have a difficult relationship with the US. As President Chirac remarked in June, for the American president to ask the EU to let Turkey in is like France telling the US how to handle its relations with Mexico.
4. Educate the Turkish political and business elites about the scale of the changes needed to meet the EU’s accession requirements. Many of the enthusiasts for entry are unaware of how profoundly the EU’s requirements will change Turkey’s political institutions and economy. They will become much less keen when they start to realise that EU accession will require Turkey to do unpopular things like cutting state subsidies to ailing industries, imposing tougher hygiene standards on its food producers, and taking on costly EU environmental rules. Economic interest groups will start to complain loudly when the full price of joining the EU becomes clearer, so the Turkish government needs to start a more informed debate about the overall balance of the costs and benefits.
5. Make the Turkish public aware of the likely timetable, which is that the negotiations will probably last at least ten years. A series of governments will have to follow a consistent strategy for meeting the EU’s many requirements. This strategy will only be politically viable only if the public can see tangible progress towards membership from one election to the next.
Golden rules for the EU
1. Recognise Turkey’s membership aspirations as a strategic opportunity, not a threat to European identity. The identity questions are there already, and putting off accession negotiations will not make them go away.
2. Acknowledge how far Turkey has come already. This is a country that experienced four military coups in the last half-century, but now it is pursuing previously unthinkable reforms. The current government has shown not only a firm commitment to change Turkey to make it fit for membership, but also the capacity to implement changes.
3. Work on reforms that will make the EU able to accommodate Turkey as a member. Many of these changes are in any case needed — such as reform of farm policy and regional aid. Others will be forced on the Union by the existing members – such as more flexible modes of integration, so that not all countries necessarily take part in all EU policies.
4. Make the membership conditions precise and very clear. The EU’s accession criteria are rather general and vague. In the case of the Central and East European candidates, this was not a major problem because the countries were smaller and they competed against one another to fulfil the conditions. But Turkey will need more detailed guidance, because it is a large country and will be in negotiations for a longer period.
5. Start preparing public opinion for Turkish membership. If Europe’s leaders do not lead on this issue, there is a risk that a referendum in one member-state could block Turkish accession. They must explain how the EU would gain from the arrival of such a young, economically dynamic country such as Turkey. Turkey will be a valuable strategic partner for the EU in the Black Sea region and the Middle East. And EU leaders should point to broader benefits – for the world, and not just Europe – of showing that a Muslim country can co-exist peacefully with Christian countries in the same Union.
